Solo mining in 2026: odds of finding a block by hashrate
Solo mining means you keep the full block reward (3.125 BTC plus transaction fees) when you find a block, and earn zero while you wait. At ~926 EH/s of total network hashrate (coinwarz.com, 7-day average, ~25.09.2026) and 144 blocks mined per day, a single Antminer S21 Pro at 234 TH/s has roughly a 1-in-27,500 chance of finding a block on any given day. That translates to waiting about 75 years on average. Solo mining only starts to look like a business rather than a lottery once you control at least 10 PH/s of personal hashrate, where the expected wait drops below two years. For everyone else, a pool with a 1-2% fee turns that lottery ticket into a daily paycheck.
How do you calculate the odds of finding a block solo?
Your probability of finding the next block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. Since Bitcoin produces roughly 144 blocks per day, the expected number of blocks you find per day is (your hashrate / network hashrate) x 144. The inverse of that number gives you the average wait time in days.
The formula:
Expected days per block = Network hashrate / (Your hashrate x 144)
Each hash attempt is independent. The network does not "remember" how long you have been trying. If you have waited two years without a block, your odds tomorrow are exactly the same as they were on day one. This is a property of geometric (memoryless) distribution, and it catches a lot of solo miners off guard.
What are the actual odds for different hashrates?
The table below uses a network hashrate of ~926 EH/s (7-day average, ~25.09.2026, coinwarz.com). Inputs: block share = your hashrate / 926,000,000 TH/s; expected blocks per day = share x 144; expected days per block = 1 / (share x 144). Plug your own numbers into the POOL BTC calculator for a personalized estimate.
| Your hashrate | Machines (approx.) | Blocks per year (expected) | Average wait for 1 block |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 TH/s (1 S21 Pro) | 1 | 0.013 | ~75 years |
| 1 PH/s | ~4 S21 Pro | 0.057 | ~17.6 years |
| 10 PH/s | ~43 S21 Pro | 0.57 | ~1.8 years |
| 100 PH/s | ~427 S21 Pro | 5.7 | ~64 days |
| 1 EH/s (1,000 PH/s) | ~4,270 S21 Pro | 56.8 | ~6.4 days |
| 5 EH/s | ~21,350 | 284 | ~31 hours |
| 10 EH/s | ~42,700 | 568 | ~15 hours |
The math is straightforward, but the picture it paints is bleak for small operations: a home miner with a handful of ASICs will almost certainly never find a block in the lifetime of the hardware.
Is the expected income really the same as in a pool?
Yes, in a strict mathematical sense. Over an infinite time horizon, a solo miner and a pool miner with identical hashrate earn the same gross amount per terahash. The pool takes a fee (typically 0.9% to 4% depending on the pool, as listed in the POOL BTC comparison table), and the solo miner keeps 100% (or pays a 1-2% fee to a solo pool like ckpool.org).
The difference is variance. A pool pays you every day; solo pays you once in thousands of days (or never, within the useful life of your ASIC). For a miner who needs to cover electricity costs month to month, variance is not an abstract concept. It is the difference between staying online and shutting down.
Here is a concrete example at ~926 EH/s, with a 420 TH/s farm (three S19 XP units, about $7,500 invested). Inputs: share = 420 / 926,000,000 = 4.54e-7; blocks/day = 6.53e-5; wait = ~42 years.
| Solo | Pool (1% fee) | |
|---|---|---|
| Expected daily income | ~$17 | ~$16.83 |
| Actual payout pattern | one lump sum every ~42 years | small payout every day |
| Months with $0 income | most of them | zero |
The seventeen cents per day you give up in pool fees buys you certainty. That trade is worth it for nearly every miner on the planet.
What about solo pools like ckpool?
A solo pool (ckpool.org, solo.antpool.com) gives you a stratum endpoint and provides block templates from their node. You do not need to run your own Bitcoin full node. The setup takes five minutes: swap the pool address in your ASIC's configuration, put your BTC address in the worker field, and start hashing. If you find a block, you receive the full reward minus the pool's fee.
The math does not change. A solo pool lowers the technical barrier, not the probability. Your odds of finding a block are still your hashrate divided by the network total.
| Solo pool | Fee on block found | Stratum address |
|---|---|---|
| ckpool.org | 2% (raised from 1.5% on 2026-09-01) (source) | stratum+tcp://solo.ckpool.org:3333 |
| solo.antpool.com | 1% (source) | stratum+tcp://solo.antpool.com:3333 |
Note: F2Pool does not offer a BTC solo mining mode. Their official guide lists only FPPS (4%), PPS+ (2.5%), and PPLNS (2%) as available payout schemes (f2pool.io, September 2026). If you see "solo.f2pool.com" referenced elsewhere, verify directly with F2Pool before relying on it.
When does solo mining actually make sense?
Solo starts to be a rational economic choice, not a lottery ticket, when two conditions hold at the same time:
- Your hashrate is large enough that the expected wait for a block is shorter than the useful life of your hardware. At ~926 EH/s network hashrate, that threshold sits around 10-100 PH/s, where you can expect a block within 2 months to 2 years.
- You can afford to pay electricity out of pocket for months with zero mining income.
Below 10 PH/s, the honest framing is "bitcoin lottery." There is nothing wrong with playing a lottery if you understand the odds and have sized your bet accordingly. But calling it "mining" in the sense of a business with expected returns is misleading yourself.
Some miners deliberately run a small amount of hashrate through a solo pool alongside their main pool connection. Think of it as buying a single raffle ticket at a county fair while your paycheck comes from the day job.
Does luck accumulate over time?
No. This is the most common misconception about solo mining. Each block attempt (each hash) is an independent random trial. Having mined solo for three years does not increase your probability of finding a block tomorrow. The geometric distribution is memoryless.
This means there is no such thing as being "due" for a block. It also means that some solo miners will get lucky on day one, while others will mine for a decade and find nothing. Both outcomes are consistent with the same probability.
How does the 2024 halving affect solo mining odds?
The halving cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It did not change the probability of finding a block (that depends only on hashrate and difficulty). But it cut the payoff in half, which makes the variance problem worse: the same long wait now delivers half the prize.
For solo miners, the halving roughly doubled the hashrate threshold at which solo becomes a sensible strategy, because you need twice as many blocks to earn the same revenue.
FAQ
Can I mine solo with a single ASIC at home?
Technically yes, through a solo pool. Practically, a single machine at 200-400 TH/s has an expected wait of 44-88 years for one block at ~926 EH/s network hashrate. This is a lottery, not an investment.
Do I need to run a full Bitcoin node for solo mining?
Only if you connect directly via getblocktemplate. Solo pools (ckpool.org and others) provide templates from their own nodes and charge a fee only when you find a block.
At what hashrate does solo mining break even against pool fees?
There is no fixed number, because the comparison is not about average income (which is nearly identical). It is about cash flow stability. A miner who can absorb months of zero income while covering electricity may prefer solo above 10 PH/s. Everyone else is better off in a pool.
Are there tax differences between solo and pool mining?
In most jurisdictions, both pool payouts and solo block rewards are taxed as income when received. The timing differs (one large event vs. many small ones), which can affect the tax year the income falls in. Consult a tax professional.
What if I want to split my hashrate between solo and pool?
Many miners do this. Point 95-99% of your machines at a pool for steady income, and direct one machine at a solo pool as a lottery ticket. Your expected income stays nearly the same, and you keep a shot at a full block.
Where can I compare pool fees and payout schemes side by side?
The POOL BTC comparison table lists fees, minimum payouts, and payout models for major pools. The profitability calculator lets you estimate daily earnings at your hashrate and electricity rate.