Mining ROI 2026: solo vs pool for a small farm
One of the first questions a new miner asks: is solo mining or pool mining more profitable? Solo looks attractive at first glance — the entire block reward goes to you. But the math tells a different story. We break down the real numbers for a 1–10 ASIC farm and calculate the payback period using the POOL BTC calculator.
How much does a small farm earn?
Say you have 3 Antminer S19 XP units — roughly 420 TH/s combined. The Bitcoin network today sits at around 800 EH/s (800,000,000 TH/s).
Your share of the network: 420 / 800,000,000 = 0.0000525%
A Bitcoin block is found every ~10 minutes; the reward is 3.125 BTC (post-2024 halving). Per day: 144 blocks × 3.125 BTC = 450 BTC across the whole network.
Your share: 450 × 0.0000525% = 0.000236 BTC/day ≈ $14/day at $60,000.
Solo: the honest math
In solo mining you receive the entire block (3.125 BTC ≈ $187,500) — but only when you find it yourself.
At 420 TH/s the probability of finding a block in one day is 0.0000525%. That means:
On average you will find one block every ~5,200 days — roughly 14 years.
The expected value is the same as mining in a pool. But in practice: 99.9% of small-farm miners earn nothing for years when mining solo.
Pool: stable income every day
In a pool, thousands of miners combine hashrate. The pool finds blocks regularly and splits the reward proportionally.
At 420 TH/s with a 1% pool fee:
| Solo | Pool | |
|---|---|---|
| Daily income (expected) | $14 | ~$13.86 |
| Actual payouts | once in 14 years | every day |
| Risk | very high | minimal |
| Entry barrier | none | none |
Table 1 — solo vs pool comparison for a 420 TH/s farm at $60,000
The difference in expected income is 1% (the pool fee). The difference in stability is enormous.
When does the farm pay off?
A used Antminer S19 XP costs ~$2,000. Three units + rack + wiring ≈ $7,500 invested.
$14/day in gross income looks decent — until you factor in electricity:
Power: 3 × 3.5 kW × $0.07/kWh × 24 h = ~$17.60/day
At $0.07/kWh the farm runs at a loss.
| Rate | Power/day | Net income/day | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.07/kWh | $17.60 | −$3.60 | loss |
| $0.05/kWh | $12.60 | $1.40 | ~14.7 years |
| $0.04/kWh | $10.10 | $3.90 | ~5.3 years |
| $0.03/kWh | $7.60 | $6.40 | ~3.2 years |
Table 2 — farm payback at different electricity rates (420 TH/s, $60,000 BTC, $7,500 invested)
Run your own numbers: POOL BTC calculator — enter your hashrate, electricity rate, and BTC price.
Frequently asked questions
Should I switch from solo to a pool with a small farm?
Yes. Below 1–2 PH/s, a pool gives predictable daily payouts. Solo theoretically lets you win more in one shot, but in practice a small farm can go years without finding a block. A 1–2% pool fee is a fair price for that stability.
What hashrate do I need for profitable solo mining?
At the current network difficulty (~800 EH/s), finding one block per day requires roughly 555 PH/s — about 1,300 Antminer S19 XP units. Not realistic for a home miner.
Does the choice of pool affect income?
Marginally. The key variables are the fee (0.5–2%) and the payout scheme (PPS vs PPLNS). PPS pays a fixed amount per share regardless of pool luck. PPLNS ties earnings to recently found blocks — slightly more volatile but potentially higher.
How does the Bitcoin price affect ROI?
Directly proportional. If BTC doubles, the payback period roughly halves. That is why miners who bought hardware near a bear-market bottom often earn disproportionately large returns in the next bull run.
Is it better to buy an ASIC or buy Bitcoin directly?
It depends on your time horizon and electricity cost. Mining provides dollar-cost averaging: you accumulate BTC gradually rather than investing a lump sum. At cheap electricity (below $0.04/kWh), mining has historically outperformed direct BTC purchases over a 2–3 year horizon during bull markets.