Predict.fun review 2026: how it works, fees, who it fits

Predict.fun makes sense for people outside its restricted countries who hold USDT or USDC and want to trade event outcomes on BNB Chain without paying gas. Limit orders cost nothing. It is a poor fit for US and UK residents, for anyone who would need a VPN, and for money you cannot afford to lose.

POOL BTC is an independent comparison site, not Predict.fun and not a mining pool, and nothing here is investment advice. The figures come from Predict's official pages, terms of service and audit reports, plus DefiLlama, all checked on 2026-10-05.

What is Predict.fun?

Predict.fun is a prediction market on BNB Chain. You buy YES or NO shares on an event, and each winning share pays $1 when the market resolves. Trading is in USDT. The operator is PDF Labs Limited, whose terms were last updated on November 18, 2025. It launched in 2025, and the official site does not give an exact date.

The founder goes by "dingaling". Predict's own comparison page describes him as a former Head of Research at Binance and the founder of PancakeSwap. YZi Labs backed the project in a strategic round, which DefiLlama dates to April 2, 2026, with the amount undisclosed. According to official news from July 7, 2026, Susquehanna Crypto provides liquidity for block trades. Predict is also the official prediction market provider inside Binance Wallet.

How big is it? That depends on who you ask. The official About page on 2026-10-05 showed $6,355,965,708 in total volume, $600,995,648 over 30 days, 153,257,426 bets and 1,304,064 users. DefiLlama counts less: $3.307 billion cumulative, $303.75 million over 30 days, and about $9.68 million locked in the protocol. The official total is roughly double DefiLlama's, and the two use different methods, so treat both as estimates. Predict's press releases marked $3 billion in April 2026 and $6 billion in September 2026.

How does Predict.fun work?

Orders are matched off-chain in a central limit order book and settled on-chain through a conditional token exchange. Shares are ERC1155 tokens. Markets with more than two outcomes use a NegRisk setup. While your position is open, the collateral on eligible markets earns yield through Venus Protocol, and Predict keeps 10% of that yield.

Not every market earns yield. The ones that do carry a yield badge, and the rate varies. The 10% management fee applies to the yield only, not to your stake. Predict also runs "bond" markets, where NO shares trade at $0.98-0.99.

Sign-up works with email, Google or X. That creates a non-custodial smart wallet built on Privy and ZeroDev. Binance Wallet users trade through Binance's keyless MPC wallet instead. The main chain is BNB Chain. An older deployment on Blast still holds about $36K.

Most markets resolve through the UMA Optimistic Oracle. If nobody disputes the proposed answer, resolution takes about 2 hours, and the challenge window is also about 2 hours. A dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders. Predict cites UMA's figure that fewer than 2% of proposals get disputed. The 15-minute crypto and stock UP/DOWN markets use Chainlink Data Streams instead.

What fees and limits does Predict.fun have?

Makers pay 0%. Takers pay between 0.018% and 2% depending on share price, by the formula 2% x min(price, 1 - price) x shares, so the fee peaks at $0.50. Deposits and withdrawals carry no platform fee, smart wallet users pay no gas, and the minimum order is 1 USDT.

Here is the formula at work. Buying 100 shares at $0.50 as a taker costs 2% x 0.5 x 100, which is $1 in fees. At $0.90 it drops to 2% x 0.1 x 100, or $0.20. A referred user pays 10% less: $0.90 instead of $1 in the first case.

The official schedule has no separate rates per category, which sets it apart from Polymarket. Our Polymarket review breaks down that platform's category fees.

Who is Predict.fun for, and who should avoid it?

It suits people in permitted countries who already hold stablecoins, want a gasless wallet they control, and are fine with small, defined stakes. Limit-order traders do best, since makers pay 0%. It does not suit residents of restricted countries, anyone planning to use a VPN, or anyone looking for steady income.

Low fees do not make the platform safe for large sums. Resolution depends on the oracle and on how each market's rules are worded, and the terms say the company is not responsible for oracle accuracy. Liquidity can be thin on smaller markets, so a big order may move the price against you.

If you mine bitcoin and are weighing event trading against steady payouts, run the mining numbers first in our mining calculator. Mining income can be estimated. A prediction market position can go to zero.

Which countries can use Predict.fun?

Trading is prohibited in ten jurisdictions under the terms of service: the US, the UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium and Taiwan. Sanctioned territories are blocked as well. Russia is not named, but the terms cover any country under OFAC or UN sanctions, so access from Russia is unclear.

The sanctioned territories listed by name are Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

The terms ban VPNs as a way around restrictions, with "no exceptions". Breaking that rule can put your account in close-only mode or block access entirely. We do not recommend trying it. If you live in Russia, read the terms yourself and check your local law before you deposit anything.

Is Predict.fun safe, and who holds the funds?

Funds sit in a non-custodial smart wallet that you control, not in an exchange account. Cyfrin audited the Venus integration and UMA architecture in February 2026 and found no critical issues. One medium finding was acknowledged but not fixed. No security incidents are disclosed on the official site.

The Cyfrin report dated February 18, 2026 lists 5 findings: 1 medium, 1 low and 3 informational. The medium one is that the emergency disable function fails when Venus utilization is high. Cyfrin also audited the Chainlink CRE integration on April 25, 2026. A Sherlock audit from September 2024 appears to cover a lending product called PredictDotLoan rather than the trading platform. CertiK Skynet scores the project 85.02 out of 100, grade A, and lists 3 audits.

To limit Venus risk, Predict caps exposure once Venus utilization reaches 75% and puts nothing in at 90%. Off-chain matching is still centralized, though, and admins can flag a market for emergency resolution.

On KYC, we did not find requirements described in the official materials we checked on 2026-10-05. Skipping an ID upload does not make you anonymous. Card on-ramps and exchanges keep their own records, as our analysis of "no-KYC" crypto cards explains.

How do you start on Predict.fun?

These steps follow Predict's official guide and assume your country is not on the restricted list.

1. Open Predict.fun and sign up with email, Google or X. A smart wallet is created for you.
2. Choose a deposit route: the Fun.xyz on-ramp, a direct USDT or USDC transfer, or Binance Wallet.
3. For a direct transfer, send USDT on BNB Chain to the smart wallet deposit address. The global deposit address also takes USDC or USDT from Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum. Do not send BNB or other assets: they are not accepted, and recovering them means interacting with the contract by hand.
4. Wait for confirmation, which usually takes a few minutes.
5. Browse markets and read each market's resolution rules before you trade.
6. Buy YES or NO as a taker, or place a limit order as a maker to pay 0%.
7. Hold to resolution or sell earlier. Withdrawals from the smart wallet are gasless.

Your own invite link unlocks after a $10 deposit. Fun.xyz offers more than 50 payment methods in over 100 countries, though some may not be available where you live.

What are the risks of Predict.fun?

You can lose the whole stake. The terms list thin liquidity, resolution risk, smart contract bugs, dependence on Venus Protocol, centralized order matching and admin powers, regulatory changes and variable yield. No resolution controversies are disclosed on the official site, but the terms disclaim responsibility for oracle accuracy.

Yield is paid only on eligible markets and moves with Venus, so do not count on it. The Predict Points program rewards liquidity providers and traders weekly. The official terms say points have no monetary value and can change at any time, and no token has been announced. Points are no reason to trade more than you planned.

How does Predict.fun compare with Polymarket, Kalshi and Jupiter?

Predict.fun charges takers at most 2% with no category split, runs on BNB Chain in USDT and pays yield on some markets. Polymarket uses category-based taker fees on Polygon. Kalshi is a US-regulated, centralized exchange in dollars. The Polymarket and Kalshi rows come from Predict's own comparison pages from July 2026, written by Predict, so they may favor it.

Predict's official pages do not cover Jupiter Prediction, so we left its row nearly empty. Our prediction markets comparison puts all these platforms side by side.

FAQ

Can I use Predict.fun from Russia?

Russia is not on the named list of restricted countries, but the terms cover any country or territory under OFAC or UN sanctions, so in practice access is unclear. VPN use is banned with no exceptions. Read the terms and check Russian law before you deposit.

How much does Predict.fun charge?

Makers pay 0%. Takers pay 0.018% to 2% depending on price, calculated as 2% x min(price, 1 - price) x shares, with the peak at $0.50. Smart wallet users pay no gas, and the platform charges nothing for deposits or withdrawals.

Is there a referral discount?

Yes. Predict officially states that a user who signs up through a referral link gets 10% off taker fees permanently. Maker orders are already free, so the discount only matters when you take liquidity.

What can I deposit?

USDT or USDC only, and USDC is converted to USDT. BNB and other tokens are not accepted, and getting them back requires manual contract interaction. The minimum order is 1 USDT, while a minimum deposit is not stated on the official site (checked 2026-10-05).

Who resolves the markets?

Standard markets use the UMA Optimistic Oracle: about 2 hours if nobody disputes, and a UMA token holder vote if someone does. The 15-minute UP/DOWN markets settle on Chainlink Data Streams.

Is my money safe on Predict.fun?

Funds stay in a wallet you control, and Cyfrin's 2026 audits found no critical issues. Resolution, Venus dependency and regulation are the bigger risks. If you try it, start with an amount you can lose, through Predict.fun.

This article contains a referral link: we may receive a reward if you register through it. It does not change the figures or conclusions.